We take a look at the Field for the $1.5 million Victoria Derby which is set to be run at Flemington on Saturday and we give our tips and bets for the race as well as a look at each of the key runners in the race. View Victoria Derby preview below.
VRC Derby, (Race 7), Group 1, 2500m
History (Last 20 years)
*10 winners had their lead up run in the Vase, six in the Norman Robinson, two in the Geelong Classic, one in the Spring Champion and one other.
*Just one of the 20 winners had their last run greater than 14 days before the Derby.
*Three of 20 winners were in their first preparation.
Trainer David Payne has suggested they don’t wish to lead with Ace High.
He may choose to hand up, the only problem will be who he hands up to with not many out and out leaders.
The most likely to go to the front in that scenario is Beachwood and I would doubt that they want to be trailing a 91.00 chance into the race.
The most advantaged map runners are Astoria and Eshtiraak who both draw low barriers after being forced to cover ground in their lead up races.
Ace High ($4.60)
Comes into this as clearly the highest rated runner thanks to back to back wins in the Gloaming and the Spring Champion.
The Official Handicap Rating has him 10 points clear of closest rival although I have him somewhat closer than that.
The big query with the horse is that he comes into the off a 28-day break.
He’s a deserved favourite, but history says it isn’t easy to win with this profile.
Was a fast finishing second to Ace High in the Spring Champion and has the positive factor of going on to run second to Cliffs Edge in the Norman Robinson.
That was Caulfield Cup day and he was advantaged by being on the biased fence, but it was a sound effort nonetheless and he has other strong ratings to back that race.
About the right price but can win it.
The biggest firmer with Unibet since the final field was declared from as much as 17.00 into the current quote of 9.50.
His best career rating came in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle and on face value you would say he hasn’t come on since.
On paper, you could say he was disappointing in the Gloaming finishing fifth but do remember he started 3.30 favourite in a race devoid of tempo.
He again finished fifth in the Spring Champion but was wide throughout.
After a wide run again in the Geelong classic he hit the line very hard against a moderate bias that day.
Therefore, it’s easy to see why the money has come for him and I expect it to continue.
Main Stage ($7.00)
Produced a stellar staying performance when beating Cliffs Edge two starts ago before just a fair effort when in the right part of the track in the Norman Robinson.
His last 600m that day was 36.29 fourth best of the race.
I can’t see how he gets a nice run off the map.
Looks to be a long way under the odds at present.
Like Ace High comes straight from the Spring Champion.
He has been finishing his races off well but looks a few lengths below what is required here.
Weather With You ($7.50)
Geelong Classic winner producing a big spike PB rating.
Looks to get a nice run off barrier 2 but even if he goes forward in rating again he’s likely to need another big step to win this.
Easily the best sectionals of the Norman Robinson when he sustained a long run from the back against a tough bias.
Another drawn to get a soft run and whilst he needs a big lift in ratings he has Jockey Kerrin McEvoy and the Hayes stable in his corner.
Wouldn’t surprise if he finished in the placings.
The early market here is interesting.
I can’t get any of Main Stage, Weather With You, Ocean’s Fourteen, Greycliffe and to a lesser extent Sullyanywhere near their current quotes and they make up almost half the percentage.
Therefore, I expect plenty of change come jump time.
I’m happy to go against Ace High even though I grant he is about the right price.
I think Astoria lines up as a very good each way bet.
If you’re more of a win only player then if you spend 10 units have 6 units Astoria, 3 units Tangled and 1 unit Eshtiraak.
For Exotics take 1,2,3,4 and 8 for a nice result.
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3. Ace High
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