We take a look at the Field for the $10 million The Everest which is set to be run at Randwick on Saturday and we give our tips and bets for the race as well as a look at each of the key runners in the race. View The Everest preview below.
The Everest, (Race 8), 1200m
Redzel holds all the map favours.
He can position as required dependent on the early tempo.
If Houtzen looks for a sit, he can lead.
If Vega Magic pushes on, he can ensure he works and then drop into the 1×1.
Vega Magic is the interesting Map horse. He’ll likely get in but it’s by no means guaranteed.
Hence why I have drawn him three-wide.
The other horses I’ve drawn in the three-wide line are more likely get in.
I draw as such as this gives the best idea of the risk that they do not.
Often this depends on the intent of the inside barriers to hold their positions.
For instance, Brave Smash/English will likely come across either in front or behind She Will Reign depending on their intent to use the advantage of the barrier to be closer.
Closed off both runs this campaign in strong sectionals but is going to be a long way back again
Chautauqua’s best is the best in the race but it was several preparations ago now.
His TJ win in April at the track and distance was visually incredible but even if he replicates that, I’m not sure he gets pass everyone in this field.
Vega Magic ($5.50)
In my opinion, his race to lose.
As noted above, jockey Craig Williams is going to have some quick decisions to make after jumping.
The horse himself has the best recent ratings since moving to the Hayes/Dabernig team, is adaptable enough to be able to lead or take a sit and has the proven stamina to see out a strong 1200m.
If not for some doubts on the map, I’d be very confident.
All the Map favours.
He has won twice at 1200m including the Group 1 Doomben 10,000.
I’m still concerned with him running out a high pressure 1200m but he’s in career best form with his 3rd and 2nd best career efforts coming the prep.
He could step again and a strong chance.
Redkirk Warrior ($8.50)
Trainer David Hayes has said all along that Redkirk was his best and that must be respected.
Certainly, his two Flemington straight track wins when leading throughout have rated very highly.
He has been less flattering around the bend in Australia.
Another with the proven stamina to cope with a high-pressure race and does get a nice rail run.
Clearly Innocent ($13.00)
Looked to have more to give first up in the Premiere Stakes.
He has a record of improving 2nd up however each of those 2nd up efforts has come off a much lower base than his last run.
If he takes the normal 2L plus improvement, look out.
But the question is did he give too much first up?
The market has factored in his 2nd up improvement and so appears to be under-priced now.
Broken successive track records, including at this course and distance.
However, that was heavily wind assisted.
Needs to find another new peak and what is needed looks beyond him here.
Likely to start much longer on the day.
Fell Swoop ($61.00)
I like the horse in the right race. Trainer is a gun but out of his class here.
Brave Smash ($31.00)
On his first Australian effort he ran the quickest last 400 and 200 behind Vega Magic.
Beaten last start at $1.65. Not impossible but not for me.
Gai Waterhouse will have her primed and ready to go.
Her last effort was a fantastic prep run for this and she can win it.
Her best is up there but has all too often found one to beat her.
Map doesn’t look perfect. Another I think is currently under the odds and likely to get to a better quote.
At around $17.00, I would consider but not yet.
She Will Reign ($4.80)
Fantastic performance against the bias in the Moir at the Valley last start.
She is primed and will take improvement.
The question is can she take the leap of 2-3L that she needs.
Again, it’s possible but I would want closer to double figure odds to find out.
Speed demon who has been fair this prep. Don’t think he can reach the mark needed to win.
Fills the Coolmore slot as one of their horses. None.
If any of the final field are scratched the connections will choose one of the four emergencies.
In Her Time, Trapeze Artist, Takedown or Ball Of Muscle.
If In Her Time or Trapeze Artist get a run they are live chances.
I will update if/when this happens although you would assume the possibility at this stage is quite remote.
There is a chance of rain, fortunately all the field, except for Redkirk Warrior, handle soft conditions.
Winston Churchill coined the phrase “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” to describe Russia at the outbreak of WWII.
(Lisa Simpson used a similar phrase to describe Nelson Muntz).
Delving into the form one could be forgiven that it’s a riddle wrapped within a mystery.
Not a race I can invest heavily on but I’m comfortable having a small bet on Vega Magic.
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1. Vega Magic
4. Redkirk Warrior
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