Victorian horses head the betting charts for Saturday’s South Australian Derby.
Well performed Flemington trained three-year-old Odeon dominates betting ahead of Caulfield-based Netherfield. The Morphettville Group 1 is run over 2500m with both horses attempting the distance for the first time. Two runners, Waging War and Rockstar Rebel were sired by 2008 SA Derby winner Rebel Raider. Coincidently Claire Lindop, who won the Derby on Rebel Raider, rides Waging War.
Jockey: Mark Zahra.
Why he can: Having a solid preparation. Finished fourth in the ATC Derby (2400m) and followed that up with a last start second in 2000m Caulfield Three-year-old Handicap. Blinkers go on and should run this right out.
Why he can’t: Form hard to fault, but he is an on-speed runner and from the wide gate he may have to spend some fuel getting across.
Jockey: Clare Lindop.
Why he can: Trained here and winner of last three starts. Scored a game win in the Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap (2030m) last start. He was wide throughout and hit the front very early in the straight, but fought off all challengers. Sired by SA and Victoria Derby winner Rebel Raider so the 2500m should not pose a problem.
Why he can’t: Form is impossible to fault.
Jockey: Noel Callow.
Why he can: Gave the impression 2500m will suit after grinding finished for second to Waging War last start. He took plenty of riding to stoke up, but did his best work late. Should be able to take a nice position from the good gate.
Why he can’t: No real negatives.
Jockey: Ben Melham.
Why he can: He didn’t get hot in the ATC Derby, but did hit the line okay last start at Caulfield in a Benchmark 84 (2000m). He’s been plagued by rain-affected tracks and good improve on top of the ground.
Why he can’t: Meeting tougher grade here and query on him running out a strong 2500m.
Odds ($3.30 favourite)
Jockey: Damian Lane.
Why he can: Won three and finished second in four starts this campaign. Latest scored impressive win in Benchmark 85 (2000m) at Caulfield. He was second to Grand Chancellor in the Guineas at his previous start. Drawn to get the gun run.
Why he can’t: Form hard to fault, perhaps a slight query at the 2500m, but so are much of the opposition.
Jockey: Ryan Maloney.
Why he can: Good effort to score over 2800m in Listed race at Flemington last start. Previous form was only fair, but chances improve on a wet track.
Why he can’t: Tougher test here and inconsistent.
Jockey: Ms Katelyn Mallyon.
Why he can: Won a Listed race at Caulfield over 2400m, but disappointed latest outing at same course.
Why he can’t: Beaten more than six lengths by Odeon last start, so doubtful he can turn that around.
Jockey: Luke Currie.
Why he can: Finished hard to win at Pakenham last start over 2200m. Previous form only fair, but looks like an out and out stayer and could be looking for this trip.
Why he can’t: Big step up in grade and doubt he has the ability at this stage.
Jockey: Jason Holder.
Why he can: Trained here and comes into the race after a last start win at Balaklava in Benchmark 64 (2224m).
Why he can’t: Much harder here and not up to these.
Jockey: Shayne Cahill.
Why he can: Won last two starts at Balaklava, latest a Benchmark 60 over 2224m. Given a soft trial to prime for this.
Why he can’t: Outclassed.
Jockey: Jamie Mott.
Why he can: Raced handy and came away for super 3.25 length win in Caulfield three-year-old Handicap (1800m). Consistent in Maiden company prior to breakthrough win.
Why he can’t: Class rise and step up to 2500m are the main concerns.
Jockey: John Allen.
Why he can: Darren Weir-trained Pentire colt which had a chequered passage when fourth to Waging War in the Chairman’s Handicap. Hampered at the start and dropped out to near the rear of the field. Copped a couple of bumps in the straight, but still worked to the line.
Why he can’t: He will probably have to go back from a wide gate and will need luck getting through the field.
Jockey: Damien Oliver.
Why he can: Arguably should have won last start when fourth to Waging War in the Chairman’s Handicap. Enjoyed the gun run throughout, but could not secure a run in the straight and went to the line (beaten 1.2 lengths) without being fully tested.
Why he can’t: Wide gate against, but last run too good to ignore.
Jockey: Paul Get.
Why she can: Kiwi filly that had a forget run last start. She was slowly away and made a wide run from the 800m when 10th to Kenedna in the Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m). Prior to that she was third to ATC Oaks winner Bonneval in the NZ Oaks 2400m. Improvement would not surprise.
Why she can’t: Wide barrier a concern and she flipped in the gates and was scratched at the barrier last week.
Jockey: Stephen Baster.
Why she can: Not far away when fifth to Egg Tart in the Group 1 SA Oaks (2010m). It was an even run and she comes into this race super fit.
Why she can’t: Tackling the boys here and doubtful she will run out the 2500m strongly.
Jockey: Jordan Childs.
Why she can: She finished fifth to Bonneval in the ATC Oaks (2400m) on a heavy track.
Why she can’t: She was beaten a long way last start and previous form suggests she will struggle.
Jockey: Brad Rawiller.
Why he can: Lumped 60.5kgs last start and went down in a photo in Bendigo Benchmark 64. Prior to that she was fourth to Toffee Nose in Caulfield 2000m three-year-old.
Why he can’t: Only win was in a Geelong Maiden and she hasn’t set the world on fire since.
Jockey: Craig Williams.
Why he can: She made up plenty of ground last start without threatening behind Waging War this track. Extra distance and C. Williams should help her chances.
Why he can’t: May struggle this grade, but last run was not the worst.
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn.
Why he can: Won Ballarat Maiden in good fashion three starts back. Latest raced handy and weakened for second in Sandown Benchmark 70 (2100m).
Why he can’t: Bred to run this right out, but may need more time.
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