Generally, favourites in WFA races have been profitable over the last decade returning better than 10 percent profit on turnover.
Favourites or second favourites have won three of the last five editions.
Horses out of the Memsie Stakes have won two of the previous five editions.
Hey Doc and Jon Snow were on pace in the Memsie and will likely push forward again.
Hartnell showed intent first-up in the PB Lawrence and will also be hard on pace.
Black Heart Bart and Le Romain will likely settle down just off the lead runners.
Showed his intent by racing on speed first up and returned his career best first up performance in the PB Lawrence.
Likely to achieve that or more again which is likely to be too much for the opposition.
He’ll likely get another perfect run in transit.
The price looks constricted now but should be winning.
Black Heart Bart ($6.00)
As noted above, both the PB Lawrence and Memsie Stakes have been run to suit the front runners so his third and second placed efforts have been sound if not outstanding.
His worry is that he gets a similar tempo against him again this week.
Le Romain ($9.00)
His PB came when winning the Cantala Stakes over the track and distance last year.
I thought he was moderately disappointing first up even with a tough run and similarly not at his best in the Memsie, even though as noted it was tough for him to win given the race shape.
Hey Doc ($13.00)
Raced to a career peak first up when solid in the market and advantaged by an outside bias to lead all the way down the Flemington straight.
Returned an equally good rating in the Memsie and will likely go to a new peak here 3rd up to 1600m, but he’ll need to and more.
Interesting profile out of the Memsie starting prices compared to the early prices here, that day HD $6.50 BHB $6.00 LR $8.50.
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Tough race and I suspect closer to 2.00 might be on offer later in the week and I’m happy to stick with Hartnell.
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