Before the Chelmsford I wrote “Chris Waller and connections will be hoping for less heart palpitations this week though this is a much weaker field than she met first up. She will win.”
Well they may have had even worse coronary episodes that day!
I recall many discussions with fellow traders and bookmakers over the Winx and Black Caviar unbeaten journeys suggesting “you just have to take her on at that price”.
My response was always to question why?
What makes it necessary to suggest that a very short odds-on chance is the wrong price?
What makes it no value? What if we consider the favourite-long shot bias?
Therefore, the question remains, can she be beaten this time out?
Highly unlikely as objectively she has performed very similarly returning from a spell in each of her last four preparations during her unbeaten run.
I must admit from a subjective point of view I went looking for chinks in her armour given I feel she has had to push to higher levels of effort to stay unbeaten this preparation compared to the last couple.
The $1.08 is skinny but then again, if they were to run the race 10 times how many times do you think she would win?
Yep me too.
Fortunately, we have profited from the Winx-out market twice, so it’s there that I will once again focus.
You would think that Red Excitement may try the same tactics again this week, however unlike last time he has two other quality horses to chase him down in Happy Clapper and Foxplay.
It’s Happy Clapper who catches my eye here as having the right platform to fill second position off the back of a fantastic first up performance.
OFFER: Get over $5,000 in BONUS Free Bets!
- Happy Clapper
- Red Excitement