Richmond are favourites at $1.42 to defeat Carlton in the opening match of the 2017 season, but when was the last time that the Tigers delivered on expectation?
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Interestingly in their past five head-to-head matches, both teams have only managed to score more than 100 points once each. On both occasions that team won the match. Carlton’s average score across those games has been 80.8 points against Richmond’s 92.4, with the Tigers winning four consecutively of their last five matches.
Take JLT Community Series form with a grain of salt, but punters do like to see encouraging signs and Carlton struggled to give anyone other than opposing teams a reason to get excited for 2017. The Blues lost all three games against the Demons, Saints and Dockers and were comprehensively outscored 175 to 342 across that series. The Tigers defeated Adelaide (92-73) and Port Adelaide (51-79) and lost narrowly to Collingwood (107-114) in their final match.
Richmond averaged 77.7 points last season and with the addition of Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy the Tigers would like to see this increase better ball movement into their key forwards. Prestia is known for his hard running and Caddy is great at winning the contested ball, two key attributes early in the season where skill level and match fitness are developing. Coupled with Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin they will be too much for the Blues.
Carlton at $3.05
Richmond at $1.40
Under 172.5 at $1.90
Richmond 1-39 at $2.10
Richmond -15.5 at $1.92
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